Instability in the markets was illustrated by analysts at Xeneta, who declared on 31 January that rates would “fall further in February,” and by the 3 February the same analysts warned, “ China import tariffs on top of massive ocean freight rate increases due to conflict in [the] Red Sea,” constituted a perfect storm.
Some analysts, including Linerlytica, say that, “despite the geopolitical headwinds and rapidly falling freight rates, the container markets are getting some relief from the continued vessel diversions from the Red Sea and worsening port congestion that continues to build up in Europe.”
The Hong Kong consultancy expects European trades to see a rate rebound in March: “Freight futures [are] back in contango as forward rates in the next six months are expected to rise above their current levels.”
In the US tariff talk is seeing both West and East Coast trades softening, which could lead to “some of the initial Transpacific capacity deployment being rolled back.”
However, Xeneta’s latest analysis of 2025 contract negotiations suggests a less certain approach by both carriers and their customers.
