Changes on key transpacific trades as alliance services are reshuffled
Notwithstanding the ramifications of the new tariffs in the US this week, container carriers have long been preparing for a slowdown on the key transpacific trade during February.
According to new analysis from the eeSea liner database, the liner industry offered a combined capacity of 1,328,000 teu on the Asia-North America west coast trade in January, compared with a proforma 1,463,000 teu of scheduled capacity.
While this month’s published capacity is 1,242,000 teu, it is now forecast that 1,220,000 teu will actually be deployed – although this is still a more than the actual capacity deployed in each of the first seven months of 2024
“Capacity in February is forecast to decrease due to a combination of factors: heavily delayed arrivals on service versions on their way out; blank sailings announced for the 2025 lunar new year; the shorter number of days this month; and gaps caused by some alliance services petering out as early as December, while others have had their start dates pushed back by a week, or even months, in cases like the Premier Alliance’s PN4 service,” writes eeSea head of forecasting and operations Destine Ozuygur
However, the fact that the timing of Chinese New Year has coincided with the widespread alliance reshuffle, meant capacity reductions usually covered by blank sailings can instead come via delayed service launches “like THE Alliance’s PS3 string as early as week five, and with the Premier Alliance’s PS3 service not set to commence first sailing until week seven – this creates a natural lull in expected proforma events”, Ms Ozuygur adds.
Meanwhile, due to the new alliance structure, the capacity changes on a year-on-year comparison vary considerably from carrier to carrier.
For example, the Gemini Cooperation now offers four transpacific sailings a week for a combined capacity of 38,000 teu, compared with the four sailings the 2M partners offered for 39,000 teu a week. However, for Gemini partner Hapag-Lloyd, its departure from THE Alliance means the number of its weekly sailings has halved, and its capacity on the trade reduced by 455.
“In addition to its carefully plotted hub-and-spoke web of shuttles, Gemini Cooperation’s conservative number of sailings may be an indicator into how they plan to deliver improved reliability on the west coast North America trade,” she adds.
For the Premier Alliance members – ONE, Yang Ming and HMM, as well as participation from Wan Hai on three transpacific strings – will see weekly sailings increase from eight to 10, and capacity rise 15%.
“This opportunity is huge for Wan Hai, which is primarily active in Asian intra-regional and feeder trades,” said Ms Ozuygur.
“It currently participates in just two non-alliance service offerings for the Far East-North America trade, and nine in the Far East-Middle East. Its only west coast North America offering is the WHL-AP1, where it is partnered with HMM and ONE.”
And while MSC has calculated that its enormous fleet size now enables it to offer a global network independently of other carriers, it is also expected to reduce its transpacific capacity, with Asia-North America west coast weekly sailings reduced from eight to four, accompanied by a weekly capacity reduction of 43%, from 63,000 teu to 36,000 teu.
However, Ms Ozuygur also notes that MSC will continue to operate two round-the-world pendulum services, in cooperation with the Premier Alliance, which feature west coast calls on the return leg to Asia via Panama.
“If we include the weekly capacity expected to arrive into the first discharge ports of Long Beach and Vancouver on the FE6 and FP2, that’s an additional 20,000 teu a week, bringing MSC’s total to 56,000 teu, and a less-grim total 10% capacity decrease,” she writes.
The Ocean Alliance will continue to offer the most capacity on the transpacific, with a virtually unchanged 2025 network that sees weekly transpacific sailings decrease from 13 to 12, with capacity static, at 110,000 teu a week
