Maersk mega order and CMA CGM push containership orderbook ratio to 45%
The orderbook-to-current fleet ratio of the global container fleet has hit a new high after last Friday’s confirmation by Maersk that it has placed firm orders for 26 new ultra-large container vessels (ULCVs).
In addition, last week also saw French carrier CMA CGM place an order for another series of 24,000 teu ULCVs.
According to analysts at Linerlytica, “containership orderbook ratio has surged past 45% to a new post-2009 high following confirmation of Maersk’s order for 26 ships of 18,600 teu and 12 units of 24,000 teu by CMA CGM.
“Total ships on order have reached 1,925 units for 15.6m teu which is more than twice as high compared to the post-COVID peak of 7.6m teu in August 2023,” Linerlytica notes today.
“Total ships on order have reached 1,925 units for 15.6m teu which is more than twice as high compared to the post-COVID peak of 7.6m teu in August 2023,” Linerlytica notes today.
The last time the orderbook-to-fleet ratio hit the 45% mark was in late 2008.
The analyst further warned that that ratio is only likely to further increase due to a continuing shortage of vessels as well as comparatively cheap newbuilding prices.
“It sets the stage for a new capacity race as the containership orderbook ratio surges to a post-2009 high of 45% with additional orders still to come as vessel demand remain relentless.
“The current vessel shortage is driving freight rates, charter rates and second-hand ship prices to fresh year-to-date highs, which has ironically made current newbuilding prices appear low by comparison,” Linerlytica said.
The Maersk order has been split between two Chinese shipyards, with Hengli HI set to build 20 units and New Times the remaining six – the overall capacity addition to Maersk’s fleet will be 484,000 teu. The carrier currently operates 4.74m teu, according to Alphaliner data.
All 26 vessels are to be equipped with dual-fuel engines capable of running on liquefied natural gas (LNG) and are scheduled for delivery between 2029 and 2030.
Meanwhile, the CMA CGM order for 12 dual-fuel 24,000 teu vessels has been placed with Jiangsu Yanzijiang yard in China and are also scheduled to hit the water over the course of 2029 and 2030.
While Maersk emphasised that the orders were part of its “ongoing fleet renewal programme”, the sheer size of the order has meant its own orderbook-to-fleet ratio has jumped to 29%, while CMA CGM’s has climbed to 45% on the back of the latest news.
By way of comparison, MSC’s orderbook-to-fleet ratio is currently 41%, Cosco’s is at 52%, Evergreen at 50% and even ONE is now at 35%.
It would also appear Maersk’s orders signal a shift in thinking in Copenhagen, with Linerlytica describing it as “the first break from its logistics integrator strategy”; while in a recent interview Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said he wanted the group’s shipping division – still its major earner – to be more “assertive” in the market.
